Skim's Shuffle Talk: EG, VP won't change, Zai takes a break and the Germans need more elite players


Disclaimer: I do not claim to know anything for certain, as everything I think to know or suspect, could very well change within the next day, or maybe it already has. If you wish to believe that I fabricated any of this based on reddit, please stop reading now.
A huge wall of text will follow, if you wish to discuss just the proposed/speculated changes without any reasoning, scroll to the very bottom. Enjoy.





This roster shuffle period is different than any other. A very short time constraint forces teams and players to act quickly and the time that would usually be used as vacation is now necessary to find those 4 teammates for your next career step.

To add to that, it appears as if Valve will already invite the top 8 teams from this year's International to the next Major. However, who will retain the invite? Obviously Valve has always emphasized that the players matter and not the organization, but what if teams split 2-2-1? Who is eligible for the invite, the 2 that stay with the organization? What if no one stays with the organization and the same split takes place? All these things matter and It is why I'm certain that roster changes within the top 8 finishes of TI will be kept to a minimum - with a few exceptions of course.

Valve logoLast thing that I want to mention before I get into this mess: the stand-in rule. I've discussed this with plenty of people and most of them seem to agree: depending on how Valve sets the boundaries there, we can see a lot of different scenarios, if stand-ins are allowed to play anytime they want (meaning you can switch players out inbetween series or tournaments at will) that could open up all sorts of avenues and opportunities.

It also adds layers of strategies for every team. I hope this is what Valve intended with this rule and supposedly, Erik Johnson suggested that teams should really look into this stand-in option. Either way, its not what I wanted to talk about mainly, although I hope you can see why I mentioned it.

Okay one last thing after all: I think you'll see a common trend of roster changes that will end up reuniting old pals. I think the major system and the roster regulations encourage stability, and it may seem easier to reunite with people you've already been successful with, rather than forming new alliances that may or may not work.

I still think however that we will see new blood. Not only because the new players have been the strongest on their teams lately, but also because it is easier for veterans to mold younger players. I talked about how the team needs to grow together and I believe it is easier to grow with younger players that have still to discover themselves and quite frankly that still need to grow up as a person. Also, and to be fair this point was brought up to me by another person completely so props to him/her, you know who you are: players that have been around have a certain reputation - so player a) may be toxic, player b) max be unwilling to learn. Of course some, if not most of it, has been true at some point, but players change. Regardless, the rep is still there and it puts people off from forming a new team with them, so rather take in some new blood that maybe you can shape into the person you need.


Here goes:

EG: never change a winning team. I heard after DAC that supposedly Aui was still adapting to the team dynamic and they had issues in that department but from what I can tell, all is good now and I'd be heavily surprised if anything changed aside from Bulba not being coach anymore.


Secret/Alliance: Zai told me in an interview during ESL One that he will most likely take a break to finish school and I believe it to be still true. Even if he didnt take a break, I think Secret would still split. Or at least change.

S4 is almost definitely going back to Alliance. Pajkatt leaving the team was determined very early on I believe. As far as I know, the decision over 7ckngMad has yet to be made, but apparently it is dependant on whether or not Pieliedie is willing to join the fray and how he works out. I dont think Alliance would have issues moving forward with Seb, but at the same time I believe Pieliedie has been in the back of Loda's head for quite some time - and it would lead to an all Swedish roster again.


Puppey is speculated to be joining Dendi, or rather Dendi joining him. It would only be fitting as I believe Dendi was not able to unleash his full potential ever since Ppy left - granted he and the team struggled at TI4 as well, I think a new roster can change things up.

I've been thinking about this roster change for quite some time, but Dendi and Xboct may have to go different paths from here on out. I think Xboct is a beast of a carry, but the roster issues held Na’Vi back throughout multiple iterations and I think it was apparent that Xboct clearly had different ideas than Ppy/kky and even FNG. If Dendi did what was best for him, and just his career, I think he should join Ppy and split ways with Xboct. You’ll find a new carry to play with, but finding a captain to lead you is insanely difficult. Xboct will find a new and strong home, I hear some Vega players wanna play with him (Mag is supposedly one of them)

Either way, Ppy and Dendi reunited. The question remains: who else and under what banner? To be quite honest, here is where I'm mostly speculating and making educated guesses but I think Resolution and Yoky are strong candidates for the team. Resolution has played carry roles and heroes before; it may be a secret s4/rtz situation in terms of roles and playstyle.



Yoky is, in my opinion, the strongest offlaner CIS currently has to offer, closely challenged by Phobos. I would’ve suggested Phobos over Yoky, because of his strong friendship to Dendi, but I believe, like many others, that VP will not change. Who's the 5th? Maybe Sonneiko, but to be frank, this is too speculative as I dont know the dynamics between Sonneiko and the rest of Na’Vi, odds are he may rather team with Xboct.

Kuroky: Back when Secret was originally formed, kky wanted Fata as a mid. I just wanted to point this out to showcase the direction he wants to go. I know Kky values Fata highly, not just because they're good friends, but I think because Fata at this point has proven to be one of the best mids in all of Europe. Also I think theres a similar dynamic between Fata and Kky as there is between Ppy and Dendi. Its this "we played together before, we were successful before" and kky/ppy unlesshed the full potential of fata/dendi.

Now rumor has it that Kky wants to build an all German team again, it wouldn’t be his first try, certainly not his last. Quite frankly I don’t see enough talent in Germany to build an internationally competitive team. If there is one to foster new German talent and reunite old, stubborn teammates (Fata+Black) then it’s Kuroky. He was the one after all that helped Fata become the player he is today.

Arteezy? Quite frankly, I dont know. Yeah, there’s a rumor of him joining EE, but I doubt it. Maybe it will happen, I'll gladly be proven wrong on this one.





Let’s talk Cloud 9 then. Misery is definitely leaving, Notail probably as well. Fata, as mentioned, may or may not join Kky in an all German venture. Bone and EE will stay together I believe, possibly with either Fata or Notail, definitely not both. Candidates that may be viable? Difficult. The whole previous playing experience doesn’t apply to many players here. Bulba and Qojqva have also been rumored, but personally I hope Bulba joins a team where he can play offlane. His support is definitely much weaker. Arise maybe? 4Head.



As for China, SEA and even NA, I don’t know much, especially the SEA scene is too difficult to predict for me, because I am not familiar with the players that well.

Fnatic, I know that they will change, Johnny will not be playing with them anymore I believe and quite frankly, I don’t think Kecik and Mushi should play on the same team either. Kecik needs to play mid, Mushi as well, otherwise too much talent is wasted. Imagine putting Maybe as support.

Both MVP squads will change, obviously as March and QO retire/leave, but I’m pretty sure JerAx will return to Finland. Could they somehow make one larger squad? Sure, maybe, but I think they’ll try to find two viable squads again. Some say Reisen will return. Quite frankly, the SEAscene is in dire need of talent, especially after many of their talented players were busted in the matchfixing ring.


As for China, technically the teams should be happy with their performances, but just because Burning could potentially leave iG (I feel very strongly about it), we can see some teams shuffling carries. I think Sylar has been rather weak this season; hot carries include Aggressif, YJ and Hao. I hope CDEC-Gaming will stay the same, but quite frankly, someone could just wave around huge amounts of money and you never really know.

Just based around playstyles and rumors, I think Hao could return to NewBee, replacing June and forcing Rabbit to the offlane role yet again. Zyf/YJ could fill the void in VG and BurNing could potentially go to LGD or EHOME, most likely EHOME I believe. But again, I’m not too familiar with the Chinese players and their dynamics.


As for NA - well if there is a scene that is a mess, then it’s NA. Even Complexity is difficult to predict, because one pebble can cause a chain reaction of transfers. I wish they’d stay together though. Archon will almost definitely disband however.

That’s basically it. Keep in mind, that all of this is speculation, with a grain of rumors. There’s still three weeks to go, everything can change drastically and for all I know no changes will take place or everyone will change.


Summary

EG - Unchanged

Secret - V1 Ppy, Dendi + 3 (possibly yoky/resolution?)
V2 Ppy, Kky, BigDaddyN0tail +2

All German team? (Kuro, Fata + 3?)

Cloud9 - bOne7, EE + 3 (one of which could be either fata or notail)

Alliance - Pajkatt, Mad out, pieliedie+s4 in

EHOME - zyf/yj out, BurNing in?

VG - Hao out, zyf/yj in?

NewBee - Hao in, june out?

Virtus.pro - unchanged

LGD-Gaming - Possibly changing carries.

Fnatic - Johnny out, ??

Archon - Disband