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MMR can drop after a win or increase after a loss and here's why. If you remember how MMR is calculated from your mean skill rating: MMR = mean - (3 x uncertainty). Mean always goes up after a win and goes down after a loss. In a game where the system heavily favors you to win and you do win, your uncertainty drops very little and you gain very little points. If you recall, the game adds some uncertainty to your rating before each game to stop ratings from stagnating. In such games, the amount your uncertainty drops after the game is not enough to offset the extra uncertainty the system applies to you before the game resulting in your uncertainty actually going up and in conjunction with only a very slight increase in mean rating, ultimately results in a net decrease in MMR.
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